Destination Myanmar – A Strategic Ally for India-Japan-Australia Trilateral Partnership

During the current times of geopolitical flux in this part of Eastern Hemisphere, Myanmar is one country that holds a special status in the geographical, geopolitical and logistical fabric of ASEAN & the Indo Pacific Region, encompassing through the Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand, Strait of Malacca (that opens into IOR), Dawei Port on Andaman Sea, cozying close (334nm) to Kra Isthmus - a transit artery that links Gulf of Thailand & Andaman Sea. These, however, will be source of international security repercussions particularly for India, which has a disputed land border with China for decades. Thus, it is the combined power equation of the two that will matter in having an upper hand in influencing the concerned countries, writes Ravi Sinha, Ex-Director, GSI and Consultant Geologist. 

There is a significant shift in global geopolitics and economics, particularly in the context of the Indo-Pacific region. As democracies around the world are re-evaluating their reliance on a China-centric world order, there's a growing emphasis on establishing a new, more resilient, and sustainable supply chain. This shift is evident in initiatives like the Japan-India-Australia Tri-lateral Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), which aims to create a more stable and diversified supply network. The SCRI, focusing on key industries and the exploitation of critical mineral resources, also considers the importance of agriculture and territorial security.

Such initiatives can be synergized with other international platforms or bi-lateral or multilateral initiatives. Collaborations with entities like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), the Act East policy, the GMS Economic Corridor (Greater Mekong Subregion), and GMC (Ganga- Mekong Cooperation) can further enhance regional connectivity and economic integration.

I have taken up Myanmar due to its unique position in this emerging framework. Its strategic location in the Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea (SCS), and within ASEAN, along with its rich endowment of critical minerals such as tin, tungsten, molybdenum, tantalum, base metals, and rare earth elements (REE), makes it an integral part of the envisioned supply chain network. Moreover, Myanmar's biotic and abiotic resources, along with its anthropogenic assets like a multi-modal transport network and strategically located seaports, including deep-sea ports accompanied by economic zones and corridors, enhance its significance.

Myanmar — a member of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), could be one of the key countries in the Indo-Pacific Region, where the newly-forged partnership of India, Japan and Australia may be robustly developed for a new sustainable supply chain. The safety, national integrity, connectivity, trade of India and some likeminded democracies of Asia, and the South China Sea (SCS) ecosystem cannot be separated from that of the Indian Ocean.

From the Indian perspective, any such venture in Myanmar assumes special significance as it is in the immediate vicinity of the Northeastern Region (NER), and hence fulfils the purpose of two fundamental pillars of India's foreign policy viz the ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’.

Such a step will also be in the interest of Myanmar. On the one hand it is a rich storehouse of critical minerals such as Titanium, Tin, Tungsten, Molybdenum, Tantalum, Rare Earth Metal (REM) and Lithium, that serve as raw materials for modern-day high-tech industries including solar energy, wind energy, green energy, automobile, military hardware, space science, electronic industry, semiconductor chip, etc., while on other, Myanmar is starved of process technology & downstream application technology. This will certainly synergize the ecosystem of the India-Japan- Australia Trilateral Supply Chain Initiative that stands at the threshold — of a multilateral new world order, which is transparent, believes in multilateralism, security of the territorial boundaries, connectivity (both physical & digital), employment, secured eco-system, equitable distribution of resources of all hues.

THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

At the core of this fast-changing geopolitical drama lies the technology of semi-conductor chips that measures less than five nanometres and are the brains to all our electronics, from mobile to cards to fighter jets in which the U.S and China are nearly evenly matched. It is here that the significance of broad assertiveness of the Dragon across the Indo-Pacific region comes into play. Minerals such as antimony (Sb), germanium (Ge), silicon (Si), arsenic (As), Gallium (Ga), Tin (Sn) and Rare Earth Metals (REM) are key raw materials and are hosted in countries like Myanmar, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, etc & technologically most advanced Taiwan (TSMC). And the most startling fact is that China draws nearly 50% of its import of rare earth elements (REE) from Myanmar in a clandestine fashion. With the aforesaid reason in mind, it is abundantly clear that China's power and influence will continue to spread into Indian Ocean, South Asia, Southeast Asia through South China Sea.

The Quad members are aware of the crucial position of India in the Indo Pacific region which has the potential to host a new multi-lateral resilient, sustainable supply chain without China in a new world order. If we are to tangibly confront & contain the onslaught of China in ASEAN & Indo Pacific, the Quad nations must act in coherence, align their national interest, military cooperation, transparency, and ensure proliferation of Technology transfer, safe navigation, easy access to critical mineral resources. If Myanmar is lost then China's ambition of destabilizing the Indian Ocean for its Blue Economy with its Blue Navy, will come closer to reality.

It is important that India-Japan- Australia trilateral resilient supply chain initiative should be strengthened and effectively operationalized keeping Myanmar in that ambit so that its unique biotic, abiotic, land and marine resources are not plundered by China to keep inflating its economy and resources and succeed in its punctiliously designed route to Western Indian Ocean through the Arabian sea which is the potential theatre of conflict for its Blue economy. I lay special emphasis on bolstering of the Japan-India-Australia tri-lateral supply chain initiative coupling with BIMSTEC - an inter-regional grouping that seeks to foster regional & economic cooperation among nations adjacent to Bay of Bengal and in littoral areas. This out-of-the-box thinking may be a solution to check mate the growing hegemony of China which appear to have not only punctiliously clipped India in ASEAN Summit, held at Jakarta on 24th April 2021 but have stolen a march over the Western democracies if you read the fine prints between the lines of the ASEAN Documents. BIMSTEC includes Myanmar and Bangladesh and from our perspective, resource rich and geo-strategically located Myanmar holds the key to check mate China from reaching Indian Ocean, smoothly. 

SEAPORTS – CRUCIAL LINKAGES

Out of the nine seaports in Myanmar, at least the two that are of high strategic & commercial significance for India are: Sittwe in the Southwest corner of Myanmar, hardly 50 & odd kms from Bangladesh border, built with Indian assistance, and the other in the Southeastern corner of Myanmar at Dawei, which is not yet functional but is being built by Italy-Thailand Development (ITD) Public Co Ltd. Both the deep seaports are on Bay of Bengal (Andaman Sea) & thus gateway to IOR.

Apart from these, Dawei port can be said to occupy the central stage in the scheme of things of the Japan- India-Australia trilateral resilient supply chain initiative signed in September 2020 to minimize the dependence on China. My purpose of accentuating the significance of Dawei deep seaport is not only the presence of numerous other developmental/ infrastructural projects by Japan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, etc., under the aegis of various agreements, initiatives, protocols, but also emphasizing the critical resources attribute of its Hinterland. In the succeeding couple of paragraphs below, I will stress as to why the attributes in the connectivity links Dawei port or Sittwe port, GMS Economic Corridors, etc., will be crucial for international platforms like India-Australia-Japan Trilateral Supply Chain Initiative.

It would be relevant to mention here that ITD (Italy-Thailand Development) is not an investment corporation, but a development company & hence has allocated projects to investment companies. In other words, though Thailand has been a key motivator in the development of Dawei Deep Sea project in Myanmar, but geomorphologically is a part of Isthmus of Kra & it does not own the entire Dawei project. This has largely intensified the degree of competition among Myanmar’s ASEAN neighbours (including India, China Japan) & other neighbors to invest in the many business opportunities made available by the ITD. So far, there has been keen interest from key Asian powers in the seaport. China has always expressed its enthusiasm for a physical connection with southern Burma as an alternative route to the Bay of Bengal (IOR). It is working on modalities to reduce the distance to Bay of Bengal by 3000km by avoiding Strait of Malacca.

Japan is another potential investor in Dawei. Tokyo has expressed its intent for a key role for itself in the project, particularly in financing. The level of competition between Japan and China for influence in Southeast Asia has intensified, with Japan implementing a proactive foreign policy toward Southeast Asia through investment, aid, and innovative support for regional integration. Fearing the loss of economic activity to China, Japan has moved quickly to secure its position in the Dawei project. The recently signed Trilateral Resilient Supply chain initiative with India & Australia can be said to be a step, in entrenching Japan along with India well, in Dawei Project of Myanmar.

According to Business Federation, Japan has articulated its interest in developing the main infrastructure; including port and roads, as well as the upstream steel project, as part of its policy to promote the Greater Mekong sub-region in Myanmar Indeed, Nippon Steel has already invested in the first phase of the Dawei project as one of ITD's partners.

The Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) may get involved in the development & provide capital for subsequent phases. Thailand made it clear that it wanted to collaborate with Japan in investing in the Dawei infrastructure project simply because it would help Thai and Japanese companies save on logistic costs when shipping to countries in the region, and it would harmonize the ASEAN Connectivity scheme.

India also hopes to benefit from the Dawei project. As early as 2004, India offered to conduct a feasibility study to develop Dawei as a deep-sea port. India, like China, has not yet invested in any of the available projects in Dawei, but realizes the economic significance of this coastal city which could give it a much quicker access to Southeast Asian markets, therefore enhancing the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) along with an invigorated amalgamation with the said Trilateral Supply Chain Initiative. Since the implementation of its "Look East" policy in the early 1990s, India has actively engaged in Southeast Asian affairs. Delhi's new status as a rising power has reinforced its ambition to elevate its influence in the region, particularly in the economic sphere.

In the light of the recently pitched-in official statement of the Thai PM about an investment of multi-billion dollars project for encompassing a multi-modal transport project in Kra Isthmus, India must ensure a strong foothold in the Isthmus by integrating its strong presence in both Dawei & Kra Isthmus projects to expands its connectivity, commercial, economic footprints.

Based on my on-ground experience in Myanmar and studies of recent developments in the region, I find it important to highlight the significance of Dawei port considering two major factors. Firstly, the Myanmar crisis was notably addressed as a critical geopolitical issue at the G-7 meeting in London on May 12, 2021. This situation has been further complicated by the UK's increased involvement in Asian affairs following Brexit, leveraging its historical colonial ties in the region as it assumes a more prominent role representing Western interests. Secondly, the port's close proximity to the Kra Isthmus Canal and various multimodal transport routes where in October-November 2023, the Thai Prime Minister pitched for a full-fledged multi-billion dollar project development.

DAWEI PORT

The Dawei deep-sea port and Special Economic Zone project is located near the Dawei River estuary in the Tanintharyi Region of southeastern Myanmar, part of the Isthmus of Kra, adjacent to the Malay Peninsula in Thailand. This project was first proposed on May 19, 2008, during a special ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting in Singapore. The plan includes developing an alternative route to the congested and piracy-prone Gulf of Malacca, an idea that Thailand had been considering for decades. At the 2008 meeting, Thai and Burmese foreign ministers signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to develop the Dawei deep-sea port. The agreement involved constructing the port, establishing a road link from Dawei to Bangkok, and setting up a border crossing at Dawei-Kanchanaburi.

Although the Dawei deep-sea port is still under construction, its fundamental structure has plans to feature eight container terminals catering to various imports and exports, including coal, iron ore, petrochemicals, crude oil, steel products, and a range of general goods. Accompanying the port is the Special Economic Zone (SEZ), covering 196 square kilometers. The project, estimated to cost over $10.7 billion, aims to establish the largest industrial complex in Southeast Asia. The SEZ is designed with distinct zones, such as Information Technology Industrial Zone, Hi-Tech Industrial Zone, Export Processing Zone, etc. The Hi-Tech Industrial Zone may serve as a hub for the upstream or midstream processing of steel and critical minerals. These processed materials could potentially be exported to countries like India, Japan, or Australia for further downstream industrial applications.

The cardinal significance of Kra Canal cutting across Isthmus of Kra is not unknown to the world but remained on paper since the 19th century. It was only in October -November 2023, that the Thai PM officially pitched a multi-billion-dollar land bridge project in the Kra Isthmus at the 3rd BRI Summit in Beijing and at the APEC Summit in San Francisco. The significance of the Kra Isthmus in relation to the Dawei Port project is heightened due to its geographical proximity, being only about 333 nautical miles to the south of the port. This location is particularly noteworthy in the context of China's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region. China has long been concerned with the "Malacca Dilemma," which refers to its reliance on the Strait of Malacca for a major portion of its maritime trade, including energy supplies. The strait is a narrow and potentially vulnerable chokepoint, and there is apprehension that it could be interdicted or controlled by the United States and its allies, including India, in the event of geopolitical tensions or conflict.

As I was writing this article, I came to know that Thailand plans to open global bidding for the $29 billion Landbridge Project in Kra Isthmus. This project seeks to substantially cut down shipping time between Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, offering an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Malacca. The Thai Transport Minister, while addressing Japanese investors in Tokyo, highlighted that the winning consortium for this project would be granted a 50-year concession. This consortium is expected to include a diverse group of stakeholders, such as shippers, logistics operators, port managers, and industrial investors.

The highway alongside the Dawei SEZ will connect Cambodia, Vietnam, & Vietnam to Africa, the Middle East, Europe & India. It would be pertinent to mention here that 1400km long India-Myanmar- Thailand Trilateral Highway from More in Manipur to Moe-Sot in Thailand would pass through the highway component alongside Dewei SEZ. The highway from Moreh in Manipur( in India) to Moe-sot in Thailand via Myanmar would open up India’s landlocked Northeast Region to South & South-east Asia In the light of the need of the hour for the development of a new world order with its own sustainable, stable, secure Supply Chain, & a smooth trouble-free connectivity, we should get into the critical mineral resources from neighbouring countries like Myanmar at the earliest, where the ports like Dawei & Sittwe may be holding a vital gateway to the Indo Pacific & East Pacific.

The Dawei deep seaport, when complete, will provide India an alternative sea route to Southeast Asia and reduce dependency on the congested & pirate infested Strait of Malacca and cut transport time & logistic cost. Japan has been active in taking initiatives to maintain & strengthen momentum for the development of the Greater Mekong sub-region which has a North-South corridor linking cities of Mekong basin encompassing Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar-Thailand, Vietnam, to China. But India is not keen to join this. However, the southern part of the Mekong India Economic Corridor (MIEC) is of interest to India also and it would be concentrating on this segment because it would connect Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam to Phnom Penh in Cambodia, Bangkok in Thailand to Dawei in Myanmar. The most prudent thing which I wish to add is that we may get not only access to the technology provider for Nd Magnet located in a country as listed above but also get access to additional areas hosting critical raw materials When Dawei port is ready, India is planning to connect it with Chennai. There will be no need to go through the Strait of Malacca.

STRENGTHENING CROSS-BORDER CONNECTIVITY

Recently, India's External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, held discussions with his Myanmar counterpart, Than Swe. They emphasised the need to expedite projects, particularly the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway. Additionally, they stressed the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the border regions.

To reiterate, a key project for cross-border connectivity is the Mekong-India Economic Corridor (MIEC), designed to integrate four Mekong countries - Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam - with India. This corridor plans to link Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam with Dawei in Myanmar, passing through Bangkok in Thailand, Phnom Penh in Cambodia, and reaching Chennai in India. A significant portion of the required investment is earmarked for developing a port at Dawei and its associated Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The corridor's focus is on expanding the manufacturing base and enhancing trade not only globally but also specifically between ASEAN countries and the India-Japan-Australia alliance. It may enable ASEAN economies and India to integrate further and collectively emerge as a globally competitive economic block.